Prop 36 Soars in Polls as Election Day Nears

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With the November election fast approaching, Proposition 36—a tough-on-crime ballot initiative—is building major momentum in California.

Prop 36 Riding High

Polls are showing strong bipartisan support, and with a hefty financial advantage, Prop 36 is leaving its opponents in the dust. Last month’s Public Policy Institute of California poll showed 71% of voters ready to say “Yes” to the measure. The support crosses party lines, with 85% of Republicans, 73% of independents, and 63% of Democrats on board.

And a new poll from the LA Times revealed that 63% of voters plan to back the initiative, keeping Prop 36’s chances strong as Election Day nears.

Democratic Opposition

You might remember, Governor Newsom and California’s Democratic leadership oppose Prop 36 for a couple of key reasons:

• Return to tough-on-crime policies: They fear the initiative could bring back the harsh policies that once led to severe overcrowding in California’s prisons.

• Money Maker: Over the past decade, the governor’s office said savings from Prop 47 have also topped $800 million.

• Down-ballot impact: Democratic leaders worry that Prop 36’s popularity could negatively affect Democratic candidates in the November 5th election, potentially swaying voters away from their side.

How We Got Here

You might be asking, how did California end up in this predicament? To understand, let’s go back to 2014 and take a closer look at California’s first “jungle” primary and the passage of Proposition 47. This so-called “Safe Neighborhoods Act” set the stage for the rising crime rates and challenges we face today.

• November 4, 2014: California held its first statewide election using the open or "jungle" primary system. This change allowed all candidates, regardless of party, to run in the same primary, with the top two advancing to the general election.

• Prop 47: The So-Called "Safe Neighborhoods Act":

  • This initiative recategorized non-violent crimes like shoplifting under $950 from felonies to misdemeanors.

  • Penalties were also reduced for offenses such as forgery, receiving stolen goods, and personal drug use.

  • In a controversial move, those already serving time for these offenses were allowed to appeal for early release.

• Impact on Law Enforcement: Many argue that Prop 47 essentially handcuffed law enforcement, leading to a rise in unchecked criminal activity as certain crimes were downgraded.

• Low Voter Turnout:

  • Only 42% of registered voters showed up to cast their ballots, with just 31% of eligible voters participating—one of the lowest voter turnouts in California’s history.

  • Prop 47 didn’t pass due to widespread support but because of overwhelming apathy.

• Follow the Money:

  • The "Yes" campaign spent over $9 million, much of it coming from out-of-state donors.

  • In contrast, the opposition raised a mere $550,000, leading to a stark imbalance in campaign efforts.

• The Aftermath: With lopsided spending and low engagement, Prop 47's passage has been viewed by many as a victory for disengagement, with long-term consequences for California communities.

One Big Factor? A Lackluster Gubernatorial Race

Ask anyone about the 2014 election, and few remember Republican Neel Kashkari, Jerry Brown’s challenger. His campaign barely made waves, and voters simply didn’t engage.

• A Fizzled Campaign: Kashkari’s campaign lost steam early, failing to gain traction or spark interest from voters.

• Turnout Plummeted: With a lopsided race at the top of the ticket, voter turnout hit rock bottom, creating the perfect environment for Proposition 47 to slip through the cracks.

• Republican Miss: The Republicans failed to offer a strong candidate or a meaningful challenge to Brown, essentially conceding the race before it even began.

• The Consequence: With no excitement at the top of the ballot, voter disengagement was rampant, giving Prop 47 an easy path to victory as few were paying attention.

   

The Fallout of Prop 47: Can Prop 36 Fix It?

The consequences of voter disengagement from the 2014 election still haunt Californians. Since the passage of Prop 47, petty theft and drug-related crimes have surged, with shoplifting and fentanyl-related deaths on the rise. Even though 79% of Californians support law and order, their voices were drowned out that year.

But now we have a chance to course-correct
Proposition 36, the Homelessness, Drug Addiction, and Theft Reduction Act, seeks to undo much of the damage caused by Prop 47. This bipartisan effort reflects the will of the people, but California’s leadership continues to push their own agendas over public safety.

The stakes are high
We can’t afford to repeat the mistakes of 2014. Low voter turnout has real, lasting consequences. Prop 36 is a critical opportunity to bring balance and common sense back to California’s streets.

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